Gasoline prices in Vietnam have risen for six consecutive adjustments in just over a month amid tight supplies of refined petroleum products and geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, Nghi Son Refinery is diversifying its crude oil sources to maintain production capacity, while economists warn that higher energy costs could fuel inflation and increase the burden on businesses.
HANOI – Gasoline prices in Vietnam increased by more than VND 5,000 per liter between September 1 and October 8, 2026, despite fluctuations in global crude oil prices. Key contributing factors include rising prices of refined petroleum products, tight supply, and higher transportation costs.
Vietnam Gasoline Prices Continue to Rise
Data as of October 8 showed that E5 RON 92 gasoline was priced at VND 27,700 per liter, representing a cumulative increase of VND 5,220. Meanwhile, E10 RON 95-III gasoline reached VND 28,250 per liter, up VND 4,980. Diesel prices, by contrast, fell by nearly VND 600 per liter.
These developments indicate that retail fuel prices are not determined solely by crude oil prices. They are also influenced by the prices of refined petroleum products, which are facing supply constraints and limited refining capacity in the global market.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have all increased uncertainty in global energy markets. These factors have also driven up transportation and insurance costs.
Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh, Director of Macroeconomic Policy Research at the GreenX Center of VinUniversity, said that rising prices of refined petroleum products were a major factor driving domestic fuel prices higher, even when crude oil prices declined during certain periods.
Nghi Son Refinery Diversifies Feedstock Sources to Address Market Volatility
Le Nguyen Quoc Vinh, Director of Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Complex, said the facility had accelerated efforts to secure alternative crude oil supplies after its traditional feedstock sources encountered supply constraints. The refinery can now process approximately 10 different types of crude oil, increasing its flexibility in sourcing raw materials.
During the first nine months of 2026, Nghi Son Refinery processed approximately 8.38 million tonnes of crude oil and sold 6.54 million tonnes of petroleum products. The facility aims to increase its total annual production to more than 9.2 million tonnes, which would meet approximately 35–40% of domestic petroleum demand.
However, maintaining domestic production levels does not insulate fuel prices from global market volatility, as feedstock costs and refined product prices continue to play significant roles.
Higher Fuel Prices Increase Business Costs and Inflation Risks
Rising fuel prices are affecting transportation expenses, logistics costs, manufacturing, and goods distribution. The impact is particularly significant for diesel, which is widely used in the transportation and industrial sectors. If fuel costs continue to increase, prices of goods and services may also rise.
Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh recommended that the government consider targeted support measures, including reducing fuel taxes and making appropriate use of the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund to ease the impact on consumers and businesses.
Regarding tax policy, Resolution No. 43/2026/NQ-CP, dated September 30, 2026, extended preferential import tax measures, environmental protection taxes, and value-added tax measures for gasoline, petroleum feedstocks, and aviation fuel through December 31, 2026.
Data from the General Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance showed that Vietnam’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.62% in September compared with the previous month. Meanwhile, the average CPI for the first nine months of the year increased by 4.52% year-on-year, with transportation, housing, energy, and construction materials continuing to face price pressures.
Dr. Nguyen Tu Anh warned that year-end inflation could exceed the 4.5% target if appropriate measures were not implemented.
Meanwhile, Tran Thi Phuong Lan, Chairwoman of the Vietnam Retailers Association, noted that fuel price volatility reflected the growing complexity of energy markets, which are being affected by refined petroleum product supplies, transportation costs, and geopolitical risks.
Looking ahead, the government will need to closely monitor refined petroleum product prices, exchange rates, and domestic production capacity. Businesses, meanwhile, should improve raw material procurement efficiency and inventory management to cope with fluctuations in energy costs and mitigate their impact on Vietnam’s economy.
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